Well, the Cubs aren’t going to win many 9-8 ballgames, NLCS or not. It didn’t feel like a terrible loss because of the way the Cubs came back repeatedly, but now they have to win four of the next six games to advance to the World Series.

It helps that four of those starts will be made by Prior and Wood, but it also puts a lot of pressure on them. The worst part of this loss was that a win would have redeemed another bad outing by Zambrano. It would have meant the Cubs could much better afford to lose one of the Prior-Wood starts and still take the pennant home.

Now they must win all four of the Prior-Wood starts or at least one of the two starts by a still gimpy Clement and suddenly unreliable Zambrano. Zambrano is a great young pitcher, and he will win many for a lot of years with the Chicago Cubs, but right now he’s a giant question mark. I defy any Cubs fan to feel confident about a win in game five, Zambrano’s next scheduled start.

I don’t think his arm is tired or his back is a problem. I just think he’s forgotten how to pitch his game. And in crucial moments, such as last night’s third inning, he doesn’t seem to think at all.

There are several of Dusty Baker’s moves that will be second-guessed. The first would be the decision to leave Zambrano in the game in the sixth inning, when he allowed his sixth run. But the same folks complaining about the move to bring in Guthrie in the 11th also complain about leaving in Zambrano, when the reason Baker stuck with Big Z was to stay away from the bullpen, which is very shaky outside the Remlinger-Farnsworth-Borowski nexus.

As for the Guthrie move, specifically, here’s what Phil Rogers had to say:

Baker’s most costly error was putting lefty Mark Guthrie in to start the 11th inning. Pinch-hitter Mike Lowell’s leadoff homer turned Sammy Sosa’s game-tying homer in the ninth into a footnote, giving Florida a 9-8 victory.

Oddly, Baker seemed more worried about having Lenny Harris come off the bench to face Antonio Alfonseca, Dave Veres or Juan Cruz than getting the matchup between Lowell and Guthrie, who when last seen was serving up a two-run homer to Chipper Jones.

“I anticipated they would bring in Lowell,” Baker said. “At that point, I was down to three pitchers. Lenny Harris hits Veres good, hits Alf good. I took my shot with Lowell. … Guthrie hung a pitch and [Lowell] didn’t miss it.”

I agree that Lowell is much more dangerous off the bench than Lenny Harris, who made a specialty of not hitting a fly during his half-season stay in Chicago, though I doubt if Veres or Alfonseca would have kept Lowell on the bench. Guthrie gave up a home run to Chipper Jones in game four and has been generally crappy recently, and one thing to be said in favor of Alfonseca in that situation is that he’s a sinkerballer and less susceptible to the home run.

Of course, when Alfonseca came in he promptly loaded the bases and was lucky to get out of the inning on a hard-hit line drive double play. So it wasn’t as though Baker had a lot of options. Which brings me to what I think was Baker’s biggest mistake in last night’s game.

He rightfully doesn’t really trust anybody in the pen except Remlinger, Farnsworth and Borowski. Yet with a tie game in the seventh inning, Baker took out Remlinger with one out and one on. Farnsworth came in and struck out two men to end the inning and then pitched a perfect eighth. But why take out Remlinger in that situation in a tie game when you know your short in the pen? All year, Baker has made the mistake of thinking Remlinger is only good against lefties, when in fact he’s stronger against righthanders. He should have left Remlinger in there to finish the seventh and perhaps start the eighth.

Farnsworth could have gone two innings and Borowski could have gone another two. Farnsworth and Remlinger were both well rested and with Mark Prior going tomorrow and then an off day Baker had to have in the back of his mind the notion that these guys might not see action again until Thursday. Why not ride your horses in this situation? Why put the game in the hands of guys you don’t really trust?

Picking between Veres, Cruz, Alfonseca and Guthrie in the 11th inning is like choosing whether to jump off a cliff or be pushed off. It’s not much of a choice at all. Baker’s move in the seventh necessitated that choice.

But it’s over now. Hopefully Prior can again be the stopper he’s been all year long and get the Cubs a win they absolutely must have. A Wood win in game three is also an absolute must. Then the Cubs would be up 2-1 and know that no matter what happens they’ll come back to Wrigley, and can just hope that Clement or Zambrano will pitch well enough to clinch the series in Miami.

After all, game one was great. I was offered a ticket to the game but couldn’t go because I had to drive down to Springfield on business. It was a tense drive, but nice, because nobody was around to complain about my yelling like a maniac in the first, third and sixth innings. I was in my hotel room by the time Sammy hit his two-run shot to tie it, and I hope nobody was in the next room trying to get some sleep, because I was bouncing off the walls.

I wish I was at that game. Beautiful night. Exciting game. My dad got to go instead, and though he usually prefers 2-1 pitching duels, I have a feeling he won’t have any complaints about that one. It doesn’t matter when and where or how I see these games. I could be sitting in the first row behind home plate and I still couldn’t be any closer to real action, which is the unusual palpitations in my heart generated by an odd little thing called hope.

Still there, and stronger than ever.

I hate to say “I told you so” about the Red Sox coming back against the A’s. Actually, I don’t hate it all. I’m glad to say it. It’s lots of fun. When you’re right as infrequently as I am, you’ve got to take pleasure in it.

Zito ran out of gas in the sixth and that was enough to cost the A’s the game.

There’s not much to say about the game tonight except “Go Cubs!” I hope Zambrano pitches well, because he’ll be pitching twice in this series. How he fares could make or break the Cubs’ hopes for a pennant.

I probably won’t be blogging much until Friday as I’ll be out of town covering an insurance agents’ convention, where I expect all the speakers to make lame jokes about the Cubs.

I think this NLCS against the Marlins will be fun. Unlike the Braves, they can score without hitting the ball out of the park. They led the league in stolen bases, though they were only eighth in the league in runs (the Cubs were ninth). It’s a young team clearly coming off an exciting upset win over the Giants in the first round, and they will not make anything easy for the Cubs. The Cubs took four of six from the Marlins during the season.

While the Prior-Wood tandem has been tossed around all season as if they were a Schilling-Johnson-like dynamic duo, for most of the year Wood has been inconsistent. Even in the games where he pitched well and kept the other team in check, it took him so many pitches to get outs that he’d get pulled in the sixth or seventh inning. But it’s clear that, since late August, Wood is pitching at least as well as he ever has since the elbow injury. Without actually looking at the stats, I’d venture to say that with these two amazing performances against the Braves, he is pitching better than he ever has.

If Baker works the rotation the way I expect, Wood and Prior would pitch four times in a seven-game NLCS. Right off the bat, that’s four games where — at this point — you almost feel you can chalk up the victory as soon as they start throwing their warmup pitches. But let’s say the Cubs win only three of those, that means the Cubs would only need one breakout offensive game (which, for them, is five runs or more) or dominant pitching performance from Zambrano or Clement.

I like those odds. I also think the Cubs are lucky to have home-field advantage in the series, because Pro Player Stadium can be pretty unnerving when it’s full of bandwagoning South Floridians (though another Wrigley Field South is likely). That said, with the two-three-two format, a home split can be scary because it means having to win at least one in Miami.

In spite of my optimism about tonight’s game, I admit that I was more prepared for disappointment than for jubiliation. I’m just so used to it. I knew exactly how to talk away the pain, but how do I wipe the smile off my face?

It had been 95 years since the Cubs won a postseason series, which is kind of a dopey stat because back then — 1908 — the “postseason series” the Cubs won was the World Series. Still, it counts for something. It was step two. It has been 58 years since the Cubs won the National League pennant and earned the right to play in the World Series. That is definitely the more important streak, and hopefully one the Cubs will break.

I wanted very badly for the Cubs to win today not to avoid “tragedy,” but, simply, to keep the fun going. I would have been saddened not so much by the end of another year without a Cubs pennant, or a Cubs World Series championship, but by the end of the intense drama that develops when your team plays in October.

I didn’t expect this team to be this good this early, so it’s hard for me to wrap my mind around the notion that this might be the year. It’s hard for me to keep from thinking of how much better they’ll be next year when Corey Patterson’s back and another offseason of Jim Hendry moves has improved the team’s shaky bullpen and Swiss cheese lineup.

Perversely, I’m already waiting until next year and this one hasn’t even ended yet! Tonight bought me at least another week of this orgiastic feeling of belonging to the drama of the postseason. That is why I can’t wipe the smile off my face.

So the Red Sox did what they had to do, winning two in Fenway to even up their series 2-2 and take it back to the Bay.

And now they have a fully rested Pedro Martinez going tomorrow going against … who? It would have been a matchup of the game one starters and team aces Martinez and Hudson if A’s manager Ken Macha hadn’t made the idiotic decision to pitch Hudson today on short rest. He lasted one inning and went out with an injury.

So now who will match Pedro Martinez, one of the best big game pitchers of this era in baseball, pitch for pitch? Barry Zito on short rest? Good question, and there’s no answer. If the A’s lose this series, they have the manager to thank.

Those poor pathetic souls known in Chicago as White Sox fans have had enough of the Cubs fever supposedly sweeping the city.

Chicago Tribune columnist and lifelong Sox fan John Kass concluded a recent column with the words, “Go Cubs.” Here are some of the responses he received from outraged comrades.

They include one letter from 13-year-old Sox fan Tara Lucas:

We should be proud of the fact that one of our city’s teams made it to the playoffs. But the truth is, I’d rather no teams did than the Cubs making it and the Sox did not,” Miss Lucas wrote. “It is not out of jealousy, but out of … hatred.

I am assuming that you did not mean those two terrible words. Please tell me you did not mean them. (Signed) Tara.

They learn early, and most baseball fans in Chicago never forget. Apparently John Kass did. He had no adequate defense, of course, because there is none.

The only thing more despicable than the Chicago baseball fan who claims to root for both teams is the die-hard of one team who decides to cheer on the other team out of “civic pride” or some other fantastic notion come October. I give you: Da Mare.

Rooting interests are, of course, arbitrary, which is what makes them so much fun. When the team that you’ve arbitrarily decided to root for, usually for geographic reasons, finally wins it all it’s almost as if you earned that victory by your years or decades of partisanship. But to jump on the bandwagon … well, it’s about as satisfying as rooting for the best picture favorite on Oscar night.

It’s the sign of a confused soul, headed straight for sports purgatory.

In spite of yesterday’s loss, I am not crushed. I am not heartbroken. And the Cubs have not collapsed. Dusty wouldn’t allow them to be, and there’s no reason for Cubs fans to be demoralized considering the favorable matchup tonight.

Our club has a fully rested Kerry Wood going up against a short-rested Mike Hampton, who came very close to getting knocked out early in game two. But at this point, the talk of matchups is kind of futile. The Cubs must execute, period. Wood must pitch the game of his life, the bullpen (probably minus Farnsworth) has to pick him up, and the Cubs have to score enough runs.

Pretty simple. Yet so difficult to do, and perhaps even more nerve-wracking to observe. We shall see. Go Cubs!

It is extremely difficult to overestimate what a great pitcher Mark Prior is. The only qualifying starting pitcher in the National League with a lower ERA this year was Jason Schmidt. The difference: Schmidt is 30; Prior is 23. It took Schmidt several years of toiling as a merely good pitcher to become as great as Prior already is.

There is little to suggest that Prior won’t be this good — if not better, a scary thought for NL hitters — for many years to come. Prior’s mechanics are perfect, shielding him from the usual ways in which pitchers injure their arms. There’s little to indicate that Prior is in danger of being “figured out” by opposing batters.

He has a fairly simple recipe: fastballs which he can locate anywhere in or out of the strike zone as fast as 97 mph and a paralyzing curve ball he can throw for strikes or drop off the table into the dirt. He has excellent control and makes very few mistakes. Prior will get beaten because the stuff isn’t as good or because he makes mistakes. But when he’s right, he will win.

The last remaining question was whether the pressure of a playoff game would somehow affect his performance. Aside from a bit of wildness last night (four walks, one hit batter), he was fantastic. The only run that crossed the plate shouldn’t have, as centerfielder Kenny Lofton played a single into a double by trying to make a diving catch. That play allowed the Braves to plate the run without getting another hit. He allowed only two all night.

And this was against the best offensive lineup in the National League. Superlatives are useless at this point, so let’s just move on.

The Braves are throwing Russ Ortiz out there on three days’ rest. He did not by any measure dominate the Cubs Tuesday and I doubt he will tomorrow. The Cubs, seeing him for the second time this week, should be able to cash in on the opportunities they let slip through their fingers in game one. And he may be even wilder than normal, which is saying a lot since he averaged four walks per nine innings in the regular season.

Clement is well rested and once again has the opportunity to win a clincher and save Wood for game one of a playoff series. He did it last Saturday in the second half of a doubleheader, meaning Wood did not have to pitch the final game of the year and could start Tuesday night instead. This is the exact same situation. By clinching tomorrow, no game five is of course necesary and Wood can be rested to start game one of the NLCS.

After watching tonight’s performance by Prior, it now dawns on me just how good a chance the Cubs have this October. I guess I didn’t expect Wood and Prior to perform so well, and of course there’s no guarantee that they will continue to be quite this dominant. I thought the Cubs’ starters would keep them in the games (along the lines of Zambrano’s effort Wednesay), but I didn’t think they had the ability to dominate this Braves lineup the way they have.

Now here’s the exciting thought: The Braves are it. They’re the best offensive team in the playoffs. If Cubs starters can handle that lineup fairly easily, how will they fare against the Giants or Marlins — who are talented, to be sure, but don’t stack up against Atlanta offensively?

In my mind, tonight not only brought a first-round playoff win within grasp, but proved that a pennant is conceivable too. That unreachable star seems a little bit more reachable tonight. I hope that today’s game does not rudely awaken me from my delirium.

It should be fun to watch this Prior-Maddux matchup.

I’m looking forward to it!

Yes, they are one loss away from being booted from the playoffs, but I don’t think you can write off the Red Sox quite yet.

They are 53-28 at home this season, where they averaged 6.5 runs per game, compared to only 5.3 on the road. So there’s a significant possibility the offense can carry them at home and it’s already been announced that Martinez will pitch in game five, not game four.

So the Red Sox will know that if they can score some runs in these next two games against the weaker part of the A’s rotation, they could get back to Oakland with their stud on the mound. So no, it’s not over. Yes, it’s a long shot, but it is not over.