The Cubs’ success this year is primarily owed to their starting pitching, so it’s hard for me to feel terrible about a loss that came about because starter Carlos Zambrano fell apart for the second straight outing.

Sure, the Cubs’ middle relief put the game out of reach, but you win when your horses and when one of them gets tripped up, what can you do? Baker’s decision not to walk Casey in the eighth was egregious, but it didn’t affect the outcome. …

The odds must be with the Astros now, who beat the Brewers to tie for first. Their last three are at home (where they’re 15 over .500) against the Brewers (who are 26 games under .500). The only starter really capable of holding the Astros in check is Ben Sheets but unfortunately he is matched up with Wade Miller.

So it’s difficult to see how the Astros will lose this weekend. On the other hand, the Cubs head home to face a Pirates team they just barely split a four-game series with and which scored 28 runs in three games before Prior shut them down.

The Cubs send a shaky Matt Clement to the mound on Saturday. The Pirates hammered him for six runs in three innings last time out, and he has obviously been bothered by a groin problem.

And in a possible playoff tiebreaker for the division, the odds also favor the Astros. They’d be sending their ace, Roy Oswalt, to the mound. He’s 4-0 in September since coming back from the disabled list. He’s only given up six runs the entire month. And who would the Cubs have out there? Zambrano on three days’ rest? The same Zambrano who’s cracked the last two times out? Or … no … Shawn Estes?

Dusty, don’t do you do it.

Anyway, it was nice to see Sosa hit a couple of homers. Maybe he’ll get on a hot streak and carry the Cubs to the World Series. You never know. Also, it’s comforting to know I’m handling this better than some people.

Well, duh. Did you ever have any doubt that Shawn “L” Estes, the man with the 6.09 ERA this season would pitch a complete-game shutout and save civilization?

Of course he did, because this must be The Year. This won’t make me forgive Estes’s terrible year or Dusty Baker’s stupidity in running him out there week after week to get lit up in the middle of a pennant race, but he came through when it mattered last night. The Cub Reporter called it.

Sure, his shutout came against a bunch of minor leaguers who claim to be the Cincinnati National League Base Ball Club, but it was huge nonetheless. A loss like the 11 others he’s given the Cubs this year would have put them back even with the Astros for first. Now they stay a game ahead with only four games left.

Estes did the job he needed to do last night, and in superb fashion. Now we can only hope he never makes another start in a Cubs uniform. … Zambrano was roughed up last time against the Pirates. Hopefully he’ll be back in top form tonight.

Go Brewers!

Now you need to win to keep the us in first place clear.

The Minnesota Twins clinched the AL Central division yesterday, meaning the White Sox’s playoff hopes are now officially dead. Congrats to the Twins, who won 10 in a row.

For all the bellyaching about the Sox’s unfavorable schedule, they had their shot down the stretch to beat the Twins face to face and — fortunately — didn’t get it done.

And how about the Red Sox? A fantastic come-from-behind win yesterday now puts them 3.5 games up in the AL wild card race. It’s all over but the shouting.

A Cubs-Red Sox World Series? The odds are definitely against it, but even the possibility at this stage of the season is miraculous.

Wow.

The Cubs haven’t been in first place this late in the season since … 1989. While the Cubs’ aces did what they were supposed to do, the Astros seem to be falling apart, losing four in a row.

Admittedly, the Cards and Giants are much tougher competition than the Pirates and Reds, but still … it seemed at one point that the Astros would never lose again.

But I’m a greedy sort. I’d love for them to lose one more time to the Giants before feasting on the Brewers. A loss is a loss is a loss, yes, but being able to fully take advantage of that loss would be sweet.

Which is why it’s a shame that Shawn “L” Estes is pitching tomorrow. Hopefully the Cubs can pull it out somehow. I expect this to be Estes’s last outing of the year (saving mop-up duty), and I sincerely hope it’s his best — which would still be mediocre, but nonetheless …

The Trib’s Paul Sullivan reported an amusing anecdote the other day:

Jim Hendry’s eyes were trained on a computer screen Sunday in the visiting clubhouse manager’s office at PNC Park, watching a Web site that was providing pitch-by-pitch details of the bottom of the ninth inning of the Houston-St. Louis game.

Welcome to modern scoreboard watching, where every megabyte counts.

After a scrawl appeared that Houston’s Jeff Bagwell had walked with a man on and one out, the nervous Cubs general manager asked pitcher Shawn Estes to take his seat, trying to change his luck with Jeff Kent at the plate.

“Kent’s due for a double play,” Estes said.

But Hendry couldn’t wait for the result of Kent’s at-bat, which came on a short delay. He grabbed his cell phone and connected with Cubs scouting director John Stockstill, who was at Busch Stadium.

“Double play!” Hendry screamed after Stockstill relayed the update of Kent’s at-bat.

“I called it!” Estes said as the two gathered their belongings and headed for the team bus, safe in the knowledge that the Cubs had pulled within a half-game of Houston in the NL Central.

The sad thing is, this was Estes’s most effective performance of the year. I think he should be the Cubs’ designated scoreboard watcher.

And finally, here’s a great shot of the play at first base that wound up being the only hit off Kerry Wood last night.

Pena was safe all right. And he hustled. Season’s over and the future looks bleek for the Reds. But Pena hustled on that play to break up the no-hitter, to get on base, to impress somebody. That’s a ballplayer. That’s the game.

For once, the Trib’s Mike Downey gets it right:

Meantime, the next step up the stairway to heaven for the Cubs comes in Cincinnati, where they will begin a three-game series Tuesday night.

I would not wish to place too great an importance on this series, except to say that if the Cubs do not win at least two of these three games, it will be a terrible blow to civilization from which the human race may never recover.

Yep.

Thank you, Giants!

The Cubs and Astros are now tied for first place with six games to go. Exciting stuff, I tells ya.

What can you say about Mark Prior? Amazing — again.

He stopped the bleeding and with the Cards’ help the Cubs picked up the game they should have picked up yesterday. Cubs are off tomorrow while the Astros play the first of three against the Giants at home. Conceivably, the Cubs could enter their series against Cincinnati tied for first.

I think it’s crucial that the Cubs come out of that Reds’ series leading the division. The last weekend of the year is at home against these pesky Pirates while the Astros will be toasting to the Brewers at home. I said the Cubs needed to win every game the rest of the way. I still think that’s true, but they especially need to sweep this Reds’ series to hopefully take advantage of what may be the Astros’ final losses of the year.

Go Cubs! Go Giants!

P.S. My dad writes that I’m losing the audience for this blog by prattling on about the Cubbies. My response: This blog has an audience?

P.P.S. In other good news, the Cubs are now only 1.5 games back in the wild card race, while the Red Sox upped their lead in the AL race by a game over the Mariners. Oh, and the evil — er, White — Sox are now 5.5 games out of the AL Central.

The most generous thing to say about the Cubs today is that, in spite of missing a golden opportunity to move to within a half game of the Astros, they’re still not out of it.

But damn the Pirates. The Cubs are fifth in the National League in ERA, and yet they’ve given up 27 runs in three games to a team that came into the series 10 under .500. Disgusting.

I had this sinking feeling the Pirates would give the Cubs trouble — the season series now stands at seven wins apiece — and now the feeling is fully sunken. The feeling is anchored at the bottom of my stomach.

Mark Prior needs to stop the bleeding tomorrow. The Cubs, indeed, probably can’t afford another loss this season. It’s one thing for the Astros to win it by just outplaying the Cubs. But for the Cubs to be so close and have it spoiled because they can’t beat the fucking Pirates?

That’s sad. Very sad.

Cubs phenom Mark Prior is constantly praised by teammates and journalists for the surprising maturity he has displayed as pitcher and professional ballplayer at the tender age of 22.

But sometimes maturity is overrated.

The Tribune’s Paul Sullivan reports that on Sporting News Radio, Mark Prior said the following:

“I dislike the [evil — KBO’R] Cardinals so much that I will not even root for them,” Prior said. “I hope that Houston beats their brains in and just sends them all the way back to whoever is in fourth place now.

“Hopefully, I’ll leave it up to San Francisco next week, or Milwaukee. You know Milwaukee has a good offensive team. In talking with Richie Sexson, he would like to see us win. I think he might do us a little favor there.”

Matt Morris, who had said earlier in the week he wanted the Astros to win the Central rather than the Cubs and had been 2-1 with a 1.29 ERA in his last five starts, pitched for St. Louis against the Astros on Friday night and lost 8-1 at Busch Stadium.

Morris gave up six earned runs in five innings against the Astros. Also noted by Cubs conspiracists was manager Tony LaRussa’s decision to not start Fernando Vina, Jim Edmonds or Tino Martinez in the game.

Whether or not the evil Cardinals are laying down for the ‘Stros, the Cubs aren’t keeping up their end of the bargain. You’d think that scoring 10 runs in the first half of a doubleheader against the Pirates would be enough to secure a sit-back-and-relax blowout in preparation for the night game, but no. The Cubs still only prevailed by a single run, 10-9.

Twenty-seven of the Cubs wins this year have been decided by a solitary run.

The second game posed no such trouble, as Cubs pitching collapsed entirely. I knew Dusty had given up on that game when he brought in Shawn “Unintentional Walk” Estes, who promptly walked two men, gave up a hit and run and retired two (one on a sacrifice bunt by the pitcher) before being replaced by … Antonio Alfonseca.

Oh well. Cubs now trail by a game and a half with eight left to play, nine for the Astros. The Cards-Astros pitching matchup is definitely not favorable today, with Tim Redding going up against Brett “If Only I Were As Good as Shawn Estes” Tomko.

So the Cubbies will probably be put in the position of winning just to keep pace tonight. But you never know. As much as it pains me to say it, I’m going to part ways with Prior on this one. I hate the Cards as much as anybody, but the Cubs need their help right now. That’s all there is to it. They can get their brains beaten in as soon as the Astros leave town. …

Karen writes:

I want to see my husband happy. Cubs winning the Division equals his happiness. Cubs winning the Division equals my hometown boys [the Astros] lose a shot at an incredible opportunity to put themselves in the books. There’s the fucking rub. Man, marriage is tough.

Hmm … seems the wifey’s starting to come around. I distinctly recall a recent incident that seemed to indicate otherwise. I promised Karen that if the Astros made it to the post-season instead of the Cubs, I would root hard for them all the way (unless they faced the Red Sox, of course, which is pretty unlikely).

This was greeted by silence.

I said, “Karen, isn’t there something you want to say to me?”

“No,” she said and laughed.