It is extremely difficult to overestimate what a great pitcher Mark Prior is. The only qualifying starting pitcher in the National League with a lower ERA this year was Jason Schmidt. The difference: Schmidt is 30; Prior is 23. It took Schmidt several years of toiling as a merely good pitcher to become as great as Prior already is.

There is little to suggest that Prior won’t be this good — if not better, a scary thought for NL hitters — for many years to come. Prior’s mechanics are perfect, shielding him from the usual ways in which pitchers injure their arms. There’s little to indicate that Prior is in danger of being “figured out” by opposing batters.

He has a fairly simple recipe: fastballs which he can locate anywhere in or out of the strike zone as fast as 97 mph and a paralyzing curve ball he can throw for strikes or drop off the table into the dirt. He has excellent control and makes very few mistakes. Prior will get beaten because the stuff isn’t as good or because he makes mistakes. But when he’s right, he will win.

The last remaining question was whether the pressure of a playoff game would somehow affect his performance. Aside from a bit of wildness last night (four walks, one hit batter), he was fantastic. The only run that crossed the plate shouldn’t have, as centerfielder Kenny Lofton played a single into a double by trying to make a diving catch. That play allowed the Braves to plate the run without getting another hit. He allowed only two all night.

And this was against the best offensive lineup in the National League. Superlatives are useless at this point, so let’s just move on.

The Braves are throwing Russ Ortiz out there on three days’ rest. He did not by any measure dominate the Cubs Tuesday and I doubt he will tomorrow. The Cubs, seeing him for the second time this week, should be able to cash in on the opportunities they let slip through their fingers in game one. And he may be even wilder than normal, which is saying a lot since he averaged four walks per nine innings in the regular season.

Clement is well rested and once again has the opportunity to win a clincher and save Wood for game one of a playoff series. He did it last Saturday in the second half of a doubleheader, meaning Wood did not have to pitch the final game of the year and could start Tuesday night instead. This is the exact same situation. By clinching tomorrow, no game five is of course necesary and Wood can be rested to start game one of the NLCS.

After watching tonight’s performance by Prior, it now dawns on me just how good a chance the Cubs have this October. I guess I didn’t expect Wood and Prior to perform so well, and of course there’s no guarantee that they will continue to be quite this dominant. I thought the Cubs’ starters would keep them in the games (along the lines of Zambrano’s effort Wednesay), but I didn’t think they had the ability to dominate this Braves lineup the way they have.

Now here’s the exciting thought: The Braves are it. They’re the best offensive team in the playoffs. If Cubs starters can handle that lineup fairly easily, how will they fare against the Giants or Marlins — who are talented, to be sure, but don’t stack up against Atlanta offensively?

In my mind, tonight not only brought a first-round playoff win within grasp, but proved that a pennant is conceivable too. That unreachable star seems a little bit more reachable tonight. I hope that today’s game does not rudely awaken me from my delirium.

It should be fun to watch this Prior-Maddux matchup.

I’m looking forward to it!

Yes, they are one loss away from being booted from the playoffs, but I don’t think you can write off the Red Sox quite yet.

They are 53-28 at home this season, where they averaged 6.5 runs per game, compared to only 5.3 on the road. So there’s a significant possibility the offense can carry them at home and it’s already been announced that Martinez will pitch in game five, not game four.

So the Red Sox will know that if they can score some runs in these next two games against the weaker part of the A’s rotation, they could get back to Oakland with their stud on the mound. So no, it’s not over. Yes, it’s a long shot, but it is not over.

In spite of yesterday’s disappointing loss, the Cubs still got out of Atlanta with a 1-1 split.

It’s true the Cubs failed to convert on many opportunities, leaving seven runners on base, not to mention Randall Simon’s boneheaded baserunning in the eighth inning. But there are a lot of good signs coming out of these first two games.

First, these Cubs are not the patsies of 1998. They have the outstanding starting pitching to keep them in the games in spite of the lack of offensive pop. Wood obviously was phenomenal and Zambrano kept the Cubs in it in spite of being too high in the zone with a lot of his pitches and making a few mistakes. The much-feared Zambrano meltdown did not happen.

The Cubs failed to convert a bunch of scoring opportunities, but the good news is that they had scoring opportunities. They’ve showed a lot of patience so far, taking 13 walks. Sosa, in particular, has made himself a factor by refusing to swing at the high fastballs and low-and-away breaking balls that he simply cannot hit. I also think it’s a great sign that the Cubs were able to tie it up against Smoltz, proving to themselves that it’s not “game over” when he comes in to close it.

In other words, some losses hurt more than others. At least the Cubs did not lose a crushing hearbreaker like last night’s Red Sox 12th-inning loss to the A’s on a bases loaded squeeze play.

And Dusty’s not the only one who feels good about coming back home with Mark Prior going in game three. Prior is to Cubs wins what Estes is to Cubs losses. He’s almost an automatic W. This Braves offense is clearly containable, and Maddux is hittable. Ortiz has been announced for game four, which I think is good news. He wriggled off the hook several times in game one and, if the Cubs stay patient, can be knocked out early.

He will be going on three days’ rest against a fresh Matt Clement. Given the matchups and the fact the Cubs really should have won both games, I think they’ve got a great chance to end this series in Wrigley. And in spite of the great turnout at Wrigely South — er, Turner Field — I think we’d all be happy to wait ’til next year to hear that damn song again.

ESPN’s panel of baseball experts overwhelmingly favors the Cubs to beat the Braves in the division series.

Twelve say the Cubs will take it, while six say the Braves will win. Two to one odds in favor of the Cubs? That’s a surprise.

Obviously, I’m rooting for the Cubbies. Aside from that, here’s where my heart will be in the divisional round of the baseball playoffs.

American League

• Twins vs. Yankees: Well, duh. I will be rooting for the Twins, of course. Not only are they un-evil, but they helped humiliate the White Sox. The Yankees are heavily favored but the Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They find ways to win.
• Red Sox vs. A’s: Red Sox, of course. This may be the premier match-up in the divisional round, featuring the Red Sox high-powered offense versus the A’s great pitching. Much will depend on how the starters other than Martinez perform for the Red Sox, and whether they can keep their bullpen from imploding. If the Cubs don’t win it all, I hope the Red Sox do.

National League

• Giants vs. Marlins: Giants. Bonds deserves a World Series championship capper to his career. If the Cubs and BoSox fall by the wayside, I want the Giants to win it. I especially fear that I’ll be rooting extra hard for them against the Braves in the LCS if they get past the Cubs. As for this series, the Marlins have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since Jack McKeon took over as manager, but the Giants have been almost unbeatable at home and have home-field advantage. I think the Giants will take it.

Mark Grace announced his retirement the other day. He was, for years, my favorite Cub. He didn’t have all the tools (power and speed being his primary deficiencies), but the tools he did possess he employed just about as well as anyone.

He had a good eye at the plate and seemingly never wasted an at-bat. Even if a pitcher got him out, it was always a headache. He fouled off pitch after pitch after pitch … after pitch and then took one an inch outside on the corner. Grace could go the other way and could turn on a ball inside. The man was a doubles machine — 510 in all.

In the field he was just as great, digging countless balls out of the dirt. Who knows how many errors he saved Cubs shortstops over the years, winning four gold gloves. He didn’t have the power you expect from a first baseman, but he left the home run hitting to Sosa.

I’ll always remember his performance in the 1989 playoffs on the Cubs’ last division-winning team. He went 11-for-17 with one home run, three doubles, a triple, eight RBI and four walks. Amazing stuff.

It’s a shame he wasn’t surrounded with better players during his years with the Cubs. He and Sosa were the constants. Which is why it was so wonderful to see him win the World Series with the Diamondbacks, which was (just about) the most gratifying sporting event I’ve ever seen. Hopefully it will soon be complemented by a Cubs’ World Series win. And a Red Sox championship … next year.

In his retirement announcement Grace said, “Chicago, thank you for 13 fabulous years. If we’re not going to be in it this year, believe me, I’m pullin’ for you guys.”

Thanks, Gracie. It was always easy to pull for you.

As famed as Dusty Baker is for his loyalty to “proven veterans” like Shawn Estes, Paul Sullivan reports that he is, indeed, opting for Juan Cruz as his eleventh pitcher for the division series instead of Mr. Automatic Loss.

Let’s hope all of Baker’s playoff moves are this sensible.

I was surprised by how composed and articulate Ron Santo was in the pre-game number retirement ceremony today. I thought for sure he’d break down two or three times trying to get through it. But he did a great job. It was very moving.

And he predicted the Cubs would go “all the way,” so it must be.

Santo was my dad’s favorite player, and it’s easy to see why. He played with passion and overcame the diabetes he grew up with and played with every day of his career. And perhaps this is just the emotion of the day talking here, but I think Santo means more to Cubs fans than the two other living greats whose numbers fly on the foul poles in Wrigley, Ernie Banks and Billy Williams.

While Williams is greatly respected and admired by Cubs fans, I don’t think he is beloved as such. The real competition here is Ernie Banks, long known as “Mr. Cub.” In a way, his eternally optimistic and upbeat “Let’s play two” attitude represented everything wrong with the Chicago Cubs organization for so many years. It was enough to have a beautiful ballpark and hit a home run or two.

While I don’t know enough about Ernie Banks to speculate about his inner desire to win, the image he presented to the public was that of a happy-go-lucky who wanted to lead the Cubs to greatness, sure, but was just as happy winning back-to-back MVP awards for second-division teams in 1958 and 1958. “Mr. Cub,” if not Ernie Banks, represents the Cubs’ history of complacency.

Santo, on the other hand, represents the intense, burning fire every real Cubs’ fan feels to see them become champions. Not just once, but for a decade. Cubs fans deserve not just a winner, but a dynasty. Santo played that way, and I think it’s clear from his emotional reactions as a color analyst on WGN radio that he still feels that way.

Retiring Santo’s number now, instead of waiting for his eventual enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, may perhaps symbolize the Cubs organization’s rededication to building that dynasty we all so badly want to see.

Last game of the year, and once again it was completely meaningless for the Chicago Cubs.

Heh, heh, heh.

I walked Sport tonight and it was a pleasure to feel the brisk, chilly late September air against my skin and know … the Cubs are still in it.

I wouldn’t dare to predict how far the Cubs will get in the playoffs. Especially in a best-of-five, it’s kind of a crapshoot. Let’s say that the Cubs will definitely have to earn a trip to the league championship series, having to go through Atlanta, the team with the best record in baseball this year.

What gives the Cubs a chance is their starting pitching. Thanks to the clincher on Saturday, Wood will start game one and, if necessary, game five. Zambrano, Prior and Clement would each get one start in a five-game series.

It’s impossible to predict how effective each pitcher will be against the power-packed Braves, but there is at least a good chance the starters will keep the Cubs in each and every game. And if you stay close, there’s no telling what could happen.

The Braves have to be the favorite in the series, but then again it looked like the Astros were favored too. And the Braves appeared to be the favorite last year in the first round against the Giants, then led by … Dusty Baker.

 Yes!