The rain is not gone. Check out the forecast for this weekend. It’s clear that God does not want the Cubs to win the division.

UPDATE: Today’s game postponed. They’ll play two tomorrow. Or they’ll try to, anyway. This is bad for the Cubs, I think. It is simply much harder to win two games in one day than win two games back to back.

It’s much more difficult to manage the bullpen. The players get tired, physically and psychologically. And these games are likely to be played — if they are played — in between rain delays, making things even worse. I won’t even get into how this wrecks the Cubs’ possible playoff rotation.

The Cubs’ success this year is primarily owed to their starting pitching, so it’s hard for me to feel terrible about a loss that came about because starter Carlos Zambrano fell apart for the second straight outing.

Sure, the Cubs’ middle relief put the game out of reach, but you win when your horses and when one of them gets tripped up, what can you do? Baker’s decision not to walk Casey in the eighth was egregious, but it didn’t affect the outcome. …

The odds must be with the Astros now, who beat the Brewers to tie for first. Their last three are at home (where they’re 15 over .500) against the Brewers (who are 26 games under .500). The only starter really capable of holding the Astros in check is Ben Sheets but unfortunately he is matched up with Wade Miller.

So it’s difficult to see how the Astros will lose this weekend. On the other hand, the Cubs head home to face a Pirates team they just barely split a four-game series with and which scored 28 runs in three games before Prior shut them down.

The Cubs send a shaky Matt Clement to the mound on Saturday. The Pirates hammered him for six runs in three innings last time out, and he has obviously been bothered by a groin problem.

And in a possible playoff tiebreaker for the division, the odds also favor the Astros. They’d be sending their ace, Roy Oswalt, to the mound. He’s 4-0 in September since coming back from the disabled list. He’s only given up six runs the entire month. And who would the Cubs have out there? Zambrano on three days’ rest? The same Zambrano who’s cracked the last two times out? Or … no … Shawn Estes?

Dusty, don’t do you do it.

Anyway, it was nice to see Sosa hit a couple of homers. Maybe he’ll get on a hot streak and carry the Cubs to the World Series. You never know. Also, it’s comforting to know I’m handling this better than some people.

Well, duh. Did you ever have any doubt that Shawn “L” Estes, the man with the 6.09 ERA this season would pitch a complete-game shutout and save civilization?

Of course he did, because this must be The Year. This won’t make me forgive Estes’s terrible year or Dusty Baker’s stupidity in running him out there week after week to get lit up in the middle of a pennant race, but he came through when it mattered last night. The Cub Reporter called it.

Sure, his shutout came against a bunch of minor leaguers who claim to be the Cincinnati National League Base Ball Club, but it was huge nonetheless. A loss like the 11 others he’s given the Cubs this year would have put them back even with the Astros for first. Now they stay a game ahead with only four games left.

Estes did the job he needed to do last night, and in superb fashion. Now we can only hope he never makes another start in a Cubs uniform. … Zambrano was roughed up last time against the Pirates. Hopefully he’ll be back in top form tonight.

Go Brewers!

Now you need to win to keep the us in first place clear.

The Minnesota Twins clinched the AL Central division yesterday, meaning the White Sox’s playoff hopes are now officially dead. Congrats to the Twins, who won 10 in a row.

For all the bellyaching about the Sox’s unfavorable schedule, they had their shot down the stretch to beat the Twins face to face and — fortunately — didn’t get it done.

And how about the Red Sox? A fantastic come-from-behind win yesterday now puts them 3.5 games up in the AL wild card race. It’s all over but the shouting.

A Cubs-Red Sox World Series? The odds are definitely against it, but even the possibility at this stage of the season is miraculous.

Wow.

The Cubs haven’t been in first place this late in the season since … 1989. While the Cubs’ aces did what they were supposed to do, the Astros seem to be falling apart, losing four in a row.

Admittedly, the Cards and Giants are much tougher competition than the Pirates and Reds, but still … it seemed at one point that the Astros would never lose again.

But I’m a greedy sort. I’d love for them to lose one more time to the Giants before feasting on the Brewers. A loss is a loss is a loss, yes, but being able to fully take advantage of that loss would be sweet.

Which is why it’s a shame that Shawn “L” Estes is pitching tomorrow. Hopefully the Cubs can pull it out somehow. I expect this to be Estes’s last outing of the year (saving mop-up duty), and I sincerely hope it’s his best — which would still be mediocre, but nonetheless …

The Trib’s Paul Sullivan reported an amusing anecdote the other day:

Jim Hendry’s eyes were trained on a computer screen Sunday in the visiting clubhouse manager’s office at PNC Park, watching a Web site that was providing pitch-by-pitch details of the bottom of the ninth inning of the Houston-St. Louis game.

Welcome to modern scoreboard watching, where every megabyte counts.

After a scrawl appeared that Houston’s Jeff Bagwell had walked with a man on and one out, the nervous Cubs general manager asked pitcher Shawn Estes to take his seat, trying to change his luck with Jeff Kent at the plate.

“Kent’s due for a double play,” Estes said.

But Hendry couldn’t wait for the result of Kent’s at-bat, which came on a short delay. He grabbed his cell phone and connected with Cubs scouting director John Stockstill, who was at Busch Stadium.

“Double play!” Hendry screamed after Stockstill relayed the update of Kent’s at-bat.

“I called it!” Estes said as the two gathered their belongings and headed for the team bus, safe in the knowledge that the Cubs had pulled within a half-game of Houston in the NL Central.

The sad thing is, this was Estes’s most effective performance of the year. I think he should be the Cubs’ designated scoreboard watcher.

And finally, here’s a great shot of the play at first base that wound up being the only hit off Kerry Wood last night.

Pena was safe all right. And he hustled. Season’s over and the future looks bleek for the Reds. But Pena hustled on that play to break up the no-hitter, to get on base, to impress somebody. That’s a ballplayer. That’s the game.

For once, the Trib’s Mike Downey gets it right:

Meantime, the next step up the stairway to heaven for the Cubs comes in Cincinnati, where they will begin a three-game series Tuesday night.

I would not wish to place too great an importance on this series, except to say that if the Cubs do not win at least two of these three games, it will be a terrible blow to civilization from which the human race may never recover.

Yep.

Thank you, Giants!

The Cubs and Astros are now tied for first place with six games to go. Exciting stuff, I tells ya.