Month: November 2002

What’s the worst that could happen?

/ Kevin B. O'Reilly

That’s what hawks ask about invading Iraq. They want to make it appear as though people who oppose the war are just getting hung up with petty concerns.

Ultimately, we’re being selfish. But it’s only responsible to ask what could go wrong, as Steve Chapman does in his latest column.

Among the possibilities he cites: bloody urban warfare in Baghdad, radical takeovers of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, smallpox, poison gas, an Israeli nuclear response to Iraqi attack, and nukes getting into the hands of terrorists (you know, actually, not as alleged by Dubya & Co.). He concludes:

Americans are looking forward to a brief, easy conflict that will make the world a safer place, and they may very well get it. But they should also realize that more than any war we’ve fought in the past half-century, this one carries the real risk of catastrophe.

And to those who say, “Well, every war has its risks,” I’d say, “You’re right, but not every war must be fought.” And this one doesn’t need to be fought. We’ve effectively contained Saddam for more than a decade. Moreover, we’ve got a real, live enemy that wants to kill as many American civilians as it can. It’s called Al Qaeda, and they’re still alive and kicking in spite of having been “smoked out” of Afghanistan.

Baker’s dozen

/ Kevin B. O'Reilly

It seems that every Chicago sports columnist has a slightly different opinion about the hiring of Dusty Baker, but in the end it boils down to two. Phil Rogers calls it the “Cubs’ biggest victory in years,” while Jay Mariotti asks, “What have you done, Dusty?”

My view is that, generally, managers don’t make that much of a difference to how well a team does. As a friend of mine said about Baker’s $15 million signing, “What’s his batting average again?” A bad one can definitely cost you wins but a good one won’t win you too many, in spite of all the hype. But this hiring is a symbolic gesture to the franchise and to its fans that the Tribune Co. is committed to winning, or at least committed to looking like they’re committed to winning.

And the truth is that in spite of how awful the Cubs were last year, they have the potential to be a perennial contender for the remainder of this decade. They have a trio of strong, young starting pitchers (not just “arms”) in Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Matt Clement. They have a trio of potentially very good young position players in first baseman Hee Sop Choi, second baseman Bobby Hill and centerfielder Corey Patterson. And, of course, they still have a guy who not only wants to get to the Hall of Fame, but wouldn’t mind winning a pennant or two on his way there in Sammy Sosa.

In this kind of situation you want to bring in a strong personality who can pull things together a little bit, improve the clubhouse atmosphere, nurture young players, coddle veterans, and most importantly not screw it up. The Cubs may not contend for a division crown in two years, but it won’t be because Baker screwed up. As bad as Baylor was as a manager, it wasn’t his fault that Moises Alou and Todd Hundley forgot how to hit or that the bullpen forgot how to pitch.

Baker won’t be a magic bullet. The Cubs have a lot of holes to fill, and I don’t expect this coming year to be anything more than a transition year, though supposedly one of Baker’s assets is his ability to attract guys to come play for him. So he’s not just a manager, but a personnel asset as well. Regardless, the young guys should be given a chance to play, and the Cubs should not trade away the farm if they’re six or eight games out of first in July. It’s not worth it. I’m tired of one-year deals.

The Cubs deserve, and have a chance to be, a team that year in and year out contends for division crowns and wild-card spots.

This bodes well

/ Kevin B. O'Reilly

It doesn’t take much to read in between these lines.

“It went well,” Baker told the Chicago Tribune on Monday night. “It went very well. I know they’ve had their problems, but they’re committed to winning. I really believe that and I think they believe I can help them win.”

“I think since Dusty became available, he was going to be our choice,” Hendry said Monday night from Phoenix, Ariz., where the meeting took place.

“We had a nice chat with Dusty all afternoon,” Hendry said. “He’s a tremendous guy and it was a good day. Now we’ll just try to proceed.”

Now it’s just a matter of dollars and sense. Baker wants four years, which shows he doesn’t expect to succeed immediately. He has realistic expectations about what he can expect with a Cubs team next year.

Congrats, Barry

/ Kevin B. O'Reilly

As ESPN.com’s Ray Ratto points out, Barry took all the fun out of the NL MVP voting this year by being just too good.

As for the AL MVP race, there’s no question who the best player in the American League is — Alex Rodriguez by a long shot. The irony is that by signing for such a huge sum, A-Rod has taken away the Rangers’ ability to compete for free-agent talent except for guys nobody else wants to deal with, like John Rocker and Carl Everett.

So because his team stinks, A-Rod is denied the personal recognition he so richly deserves. Funny how things work out, huh?

Avoiding the war on terror

/ Kevin B. O'Reilly

In his latest column, Doug Bandow concludes, “There is no more fundamental duty for government than to protect its people from outside threats. Yet President Bush admits, ‘We’ve got a long way to go’ to defeat al-Qaeda. Making war on Iraq will make that defeat even more distant.”

Exactly. I’m not much for mind games, but you’ve got to wonder why Dubya has it so bad for Saddam when Al Qaeda and other Islamic extremists still pose a much greater threat to lives of American residents. Is Dubya taking on Saddam because the decentralized Al Qaeda organization is too difficult to track down and defeat?

Wishful thinking

/ Kevin B. O'Reilly

Cato’s Michael Tanner says the elections were a big victory for Social Security choice. But all the races he cites as evidence don’t quite fit the description.

He cites Dole’s victory over Bowles in South Carolina. But while the race was close and certainly winnable for Bowles, it’s hardly a shocker that a Republican with high name recognition like Dole won in the conservative South. It’s not a referendum on anything but that the South is a solid Republican bloc nowadays.

In Georgia, Tanner even admits that Chambliss’s win over Cleland “largely turned on national security issues.” He also notes that Minnesota’s Norm Coleman took a Social Security Choice pledge. But that victory more likely turned on Minnesotans’ reaction to the Wellstone family’s memorial service turned liberal Democrat rally and Mondale’s flaccid debate performance. Anyhow, Coleman barely won that race.

Furthermore, when Dubya stumped for candidates his main selling points were the need to invade Iraq, create a Homeland Security Department, and make the tax cuts permanent. And it’s obviously his popularity as a war president, not as a Social Security reformer, that helped carry some Republicans to victory.

And the political reality, as opposed to the campaign promises, is that the real test on Social Security choice is not public opinion about a theoretical idea, but the pragmatic difficulty of killing the Democrats’ golden goose. It wasn’t a bad night for Social Security choice, but let’s not get carried away.