Help me, Jeebus!:

Mark Prior probably won’t pitch until May because of inflammation in his right Achilles tendon and a stiff elbow.

“I’d say May 1 or the first week of May is optimistic,” Chicago Cubs general manager Jim Hendry said Tuesday. “He’s a guy that I don’t think needs more than three or four weeks to get ready.”

The Cubs were hoping for a good outing Tuesday from Sergio Mitre, who will replace Prior in the starting rotation.

But Chicago gave up 19 hits in a 16-4 loss to the Seattle Mariners. Mitre allowed eight hits and five runs in four innings.

A stiff elbow? What?! And Mitre is far from a solid replacement, even for just a month. Nineteen hits? I just hope he was working on a new pitch or something.

I spoke in my last post about Prior’s long-term importance to the franchise, but he’s obviously crucial in the short-term as well. If May 1 is an optimistic return date, let’s write him off until May 15. That’s 40 games into the season, about eight missed starts.

Prior had a .750 winning percentage last season, and that’s not counting how the Cubs did in his games when he didn’t get a decision. So the Cubs, just based on the probabilities, would win six of those eight Prior starts.

No guy who gives up 19 hits in a spring training game is going to win six of eight starts. The Cubs will be very fortunate to win half of those games, and are likely to be sub-.500 in those starts. That’s three to four losses right there, assuming Prior comes back May 15 and is as good as new.

Given how close the Central race is likely to be, these games could very well make the difference between the Cubs and the Astros. Now, Dusty, does it still seem like it was a great idea to overuse Mark Prior last year?