It is extremely difficult to overestimate what a great pitcher Mark Prior is. The only qualifying starting pitcher in the National League with a lower ERA this year was Jason Schmidt. The difference: Schmidt is 30; Prior is 23. It took Schmidt several years of toiling as a merely good pitcher to become as great as Prior already is.
There is little to suggest that Prior won’t be this good — if not better, a scary thought for NL hitters — for many years to come. Prior’s mechanics are perfect, shielding him from the usual ways in which pitchers injure their arms. There’s little to indicate that Prior is in danger of being “figured out” by opposing batters.
He has a fairly simple recipe: fastballs which he can locate anywhere in or out of the strike zone as fast as 97 mph and a paralyzing curve ball he can throw for strikes or drop off the table into the dirt. He has excellent control and makes very few mistakes. Prior will get beaten because the stuff isn’t as good or because he makes mistakes. But when he’s right, he will win.
The last remaining question was whether the pressure of a playoff game would somehow affect his performance. Aside from a bit of wildness last night (four walks, one hit batter), he was fantastic. The only run that crossed the plate shouldn’t have, as centerfielder Kenny Lofton played a single into a double by trying to make a diving catch. That play allowed the Braves to plate the run without getting another hit. He allowed only two all night.
And this was against the best offensive lineup in the National League. Superlatives are useless at this point, so let’s just move on.
The Braves are throwing Russ Ortiz out there on three days’ rest. He did not by any measure dominate the Cubs Tuesday and I doubt he will tomorrow. The Cubs, seeing him for the second time this week, should be able to cash in on the opportunities they let slip through their fingers in game one. And he may be even wilder than normal, which is saying a lot since he averaged four walks per nine innings in the regular season.
Clement is well rested and once again has the opportunity to win a clincher and save Wood for game one of a playoff series. He did it last Saturday in the second half of a doubleheader, meaning Wood did not have to pitch the final game of the year and could start Tuesday night instead. This is the exact same situation. By clinching tomorrow, no game five is of course necesary and Wood can be rested to start game one of the NLCS.
After watching tonight’s performance by Prior, it now dawns on me just how good a chance the Cubs have this October. I guess I didn’t expect Wood and Prior to perform so well, and of course there’s no guarantee that they will continue to be quite this dominant. I thought the Cubs’ starters would keep them in the games (along the lines of Zambrano’s effort Wednesay), but I didn’t think they had the ability to dominate this Braves lineup the way they have.
Now here’s the exciting thought: The Braves are it. They’re the best offensive team in the playoffs. If Cubs starters can handle that lineup fairly easily, how will they fare against the Giants or Marlins — who are talented, to be sure, but don’t stack up against Atlanta offensively?
In my mind, tonight not only brought a first-round playoff win within grasp, but proved that a pennant is conceivable too. That unreachable star seems a little bit more reachable tonight. I hope that today’s game does not rudely awaken me from my delirium.